The Spanish Golden Visa Program: A Last-Minute Save by Catalonia?

Recent developments in Spanish politics have cast a shadow over the future of the country's Golden Visa program. The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialist Party (PSOE) and the leftist Sumar party, has proposed an amendment to eliminate the Spanish Golden Visa program.

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The Proposed Amendment

The amendment proposed by the current coalition seeks to repeal key articles of the 2013 law that established the golden visa program. If approved, it would end the issuance of new visas for real estate investments and other options like public debt, shares, bank deposits, funds, and business projects.

However, there's a strong indication that the program will remain stable in the near term, largely due to Catalonia's influence.

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Catalonia's Crucial Role in Preserving the Spanish Golden Visa

Catalonia, particularly through its representation in the Spanish Parliament, wields considerable influence over national politics. The region's parties, including Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and Junts per Catalunya (JxCat), often play a crucial role in forming coalitions and passing legislation.

Dr. Jacinto Soler-Matutes, a Senior Partner at Emergia Partners, believes that the amendment is unlikely to succeed due to the weak position of the current government in Parliament. He revealed that the Catalan group holding the key to the parliamentary majority intends to vote against it, significantly reducing the chances of the amendment passing in the near future.

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Economic Implications of Potential Future Changes

Catalonia, especially Barcelona, recognizes the value of golden visas. According to Dr. Soler-Matutes, these visas represent 65% of all investor visas granted so far. The region sees an opportunity to gain more control over migration authorizations through a potential reform of Law 14/2014, which further incentivizes them to maintain the current program.

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The Rights of Current Golden Visa Holders

Even if the amendment were to pass in the future, it includes transitional provisions that would allow existing visas to remain valid and be renewed according to the 2013 law criteria. This aligns with a fundamental principle in the Spanish Constitution (article 9.3), which upholds the rights of current golden visa holders.

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Timeline: No Immediate Changes Expected

Dr. Soler-Matutes notes that even if the amendment were to pass, which is unlikely in the near term, practical changes wouldn't occur for at least six to nine months, which is the typical timeframe for a draft law to be enacted. This extended timeline, combined with the strong opposition from Catalonia, suggests that the Spanish Golden Visa program will remain stable for the foreseeable future.

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The Bigger Picture

While discussions about the golden visa program's long-term future continue, it's clear that any potential elimination is part of a larger political and economic debate in Spain. The government's concern stems from the recent increase in foreign housing acquisitions, particularly in areas with high real estate tension.

Housing Minister Isabel Rodríguez argues that the golden visa program has failed to attract significant investments outside of real estate purchases, which do not create jobs and contribute to an increasingly competitive housing market.

As this situation continues to evolve, it's crucial for potential investors and current golden visa holders to stay informed about the latest developments in Spanish immigration policy. However, the current political landscape suggests that no significant changes are likely in the next six to nine months.

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